December 2012 Economic Index

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Decision Analyst’s December 2012 Economic Index Scores
Continue to Predict Economic Weakness in Europe

The following graphs show the Decision Analyst Economic Index for a number of different countries. The month-to-month trends are based on monthly online surveys in the respective countries to provide inputs to the Economic Index econometric model.

Despite Spain’s continued economic struggles, its Economic Index score increased for the second straight month, from 68 in October 2012 to 70 in November 2012 to 73 in December 2012; however, even with this improvement, Spain remains locked in economic crisis. China has the appearances of a robust economy, with its Economic Index increasing from 124 in November 2012 to 128 in December 2012—but we are concerned about the sustainability of their economic “miracle.” The Mexican Economic Index also shows signs of strengthening, increasing from an Index of 91 in November 2012 to an Index of 95 in December 2012.

The Economic Index tends to anticipate overall economic activity by 6 to 12 months. Here are long-term graphs for the Economic Index for these and other countries.

North America


South America






Three-Month Moving Average

The Index numbers for Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Colombia, Germany, Mexico, Peru, the Russian Federation, and Spain are 3-month moving averages to smooth out month-to-month fluctuations. The reported Index number averages the current month with the 2 previous months.


The Decision Analyst Economic Index is based on a monthly, online survey of several thousand households balanced by gender, age, and geography. Respondents were from the American Consumer Opinion® panel (a sister panel to the Executive Advisory Board™). The online survey is conducted in the last 10 days of each month. The Economic Index is calculated from 9 different economic measurements using a sophisticated econometric model. The result is a snapshot of coming economic activity in each country surveyed, as seen through the eyes of representative consumers living in the respective countries.

Decision Analyst conducts its concurrent economic surveys each month in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Italy, Mexico, the Netherlands, Peru, the Russian Federation, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela. Whenever the Decision Analyst Economic Index is greater than 110, it tends to signal an expanding economy. An Index value of 90 to 110 suggests a no-growth or slow-growth economy, and near or below 90 generally indicates economic contraction. These guidelines vary by country, however.

About Decision Analyst

Decision Analyst ( is a global marketing research and analytical consulting firm specializing in strategy research, new product development, advertising testing, and advanced modeling for marketing decision optimization. For over 3 decades, the firm has delivered competitive advantage to clients throughout the world in the consumer-packaged goods, telecommunications, retail, technology, medical, and automotive industries.



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